This is the kind of fixture that tests whether the league table lies — and experience says it rarely does over ninety minutes. England sit near the top of the World Cup for good reason, while Croatia have found life at the other end of the table a grim experience. The quality gap is real, visible, and consistently reflected in the statistics. Our model does not hesitate: Home Win is the forecast, with an exceptionally high probability of 48%. An upset is possible, as it always is in football, but the data gives little encouragement to those who would bet on one.