Lexington are not the type of side to open themselves up unnecessarily. When they travel, they are organised, patient, and willing to wait for a moment of quality. Tampa Bay Rowdies will have plenty of the ball in patches, but translating possession into goals has been their persistent problem this season. The likely trajectory here is a controlled, professional away performance ending in a narrow Lexington victory. Our model forecasts an away win at 0%, with the goals count likely to stay modest.