Louisville City are not the type of side to open themselves up unnecessarily. When they travel, they are organised, patient, and willing to wait for a moment of quality. New Mexico United will have plenty of the ball in patches, but translating possession into goals has been their persistent problem this season. The likely trajectory here is a controlled, professional away performance ending in a narrow Louisville City victory. Our model forecasts an away win at 0%, with the goals count likely to stay modest.