What is the prediction for Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?

According to the GoalLogic prediction models, the match has a 33.33% chance of a home win, a 24.36% chance of a draw, and a 43.12% chance of an away win. The primary mathematical pick is Independiente del Valle win with a confidence rating of LOW.

What is the H2H (Head to Head) record between Aucas and Independiente del Valle?

The historical head-to-head records show a total of 22 meetings. Aucas has won 5 times, Independiente del Valle has won 12 times, and there have been 5 draws.

Will both teams score in Aucas vs Independiente del Valle?

Our dynamic Both Teams to Score (BTTS) model projects the probability of both teams scoring based on recent home/away streaks and defensive records. Please check the real-time calculated percentages and value signals on our GoalLogic BTTS analysis panel.

GoalLogic | Smart Football Predictions

2026-07-16 | 09:30 PM

Aucas

1 2.90

0-3

Finished

X 3.25

Independiente del Valle

2 2.25

L W L L W

W W W W W

1.89 SCORE PREDICTION: 1 : 2 2.58

PREVIEW

PREDICTION ENGINE ANALYSIS

LOW

CONFIDENCE

9Active Signals

6/9Agreement

1Market Books

Cautious 2 1X2 Pick

MODEL PREDICTION

33.33%

HOME WIN

24.36%

DRAW

43.12%

AWAY WIN

SIGNAL BREAKDOWN

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Unlock Engine Breakdown

Who will win?

Voting closed at kickoff. Final community results are shown.

Total votes: 0

Will both teams score?

Voting closed at kickoff. Final community results are shown.

Total votes: 0

Who will score first?

Voting closed at kickoff. Final community results are shown.

Total votes: 0

TABLE STANDINGS

Liga Pro

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	PTS	AVG
1	Independiente del Valle	23	19	1	3	56	22	+34	58	3.39
2	Universidad Catolica	23	11	6	6	38	19	+19	39	2.48
3	Macara	23	11	5	7	30	23	+7	38	2.30
4	Aucas	23	11	5	7	26	25	+1	38	2.22
5	Barcelona SC	23	9	8	6	24	18	+6	35	1.83
6	LDU de Quito	23	10	5	8	23	18	+5	35	1.78
7	Leones del Norte	23	8	8	7	24	22	+2	32	2.00
8	Deportivo Cuenca	23	9	4	10	21	28	-7	31	2.13
9	Libertad	23	8	6	9	24	26	-2	30	2.17
10	Mushuc Runa SC	23	7	7	9	29	34	-5	28	2.74
11	Guayaquil City FC	23	7	7	9	20	25	-5	28	1.96
12	Orense SC	23	7	5	11	27	35	-8	26	2.70
13	Tecnico Universitario	23	8	2	13	20	29	-9	26	2.13
14	Emelec	23	7	7	9	19	28	-9	25	2.04
15	Delfin SC	23	6	5	12	14	23	-9	23	1.61
16	Manta FC	23	3	5	15	9	29	-20	14	1.65

Play-offs

Relegation Playoffs

Top Scorers

Liga Pro

M. Perelló (MF)

Independiente del Valle

7 Goals

D. Reasco (FW)

Independiente del Valle

6 Goals

Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez (MF)

Independiente del Valle

6 Goals

B. Miranda (FW)

Aucas

6 Goals (2 PEN)

C. González (FW)

Independiente del Valle

5 Goals

Top Assists

Liga Pro

A. Rodríguez (FW)

Independiente del Valle

5 Assists (2 Goals)

P. Guzmán (MF)

Aucas

4 Assists (1 Goals)

L. Loor (DF)

Independiente del Valle

4 Assists (1 Goals)

J. Viacava (DF)

Independiente del Valle

4 Assists

D. Reasco (FW)

Independiente del Valle

3 Assists (6 Goals)

Head to Head

AUCAS5 Wins 23%

22 MATCHES

5W5Draws 23% 12W

26GOALS

⚽

35GOALS

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE12 Wins 55%

77%Over 1.5

17 / 22 Matches

45%Over 2.5

10 / 22 Matches

27%Over 3.5

6 / 22 Matches

45%BTTS

10 / 22 Matches

14%Clean Sheets

AUCAS

41%Clean Sheets

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLE

PAST MEETINGS

MATCH INTRO

Tipping an away win is never the most comfortable position, but the data nudges us in that direction. Independiente del Valle have shown just enough quality on the road this season to edge out the type of hosts Aucas represent — neither dominant nor threatening, just consistently enough flawed to be vulnerable. This will not be a comfortable win if it materialises; it may well come down to a single moment. But our engine, having processed every available metric, sides with Independiente del Valle at a probability of 43%.

16/07/2026

LAST 6 MATCHES

AUCASLAST 6 MATCHES

INDEPENDIENTE DEL VALLELAST 6 MATCHES

TEAM PERFORMANCE COMPARISON

Aucas

Ecuador - Liga Pro League Pos. 4 / 16

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	L W L L W	1.77
Home	W W W L L	2.00
Away	L W W L W	1.57

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	53.85%	66.67%	42.86%
AVG	2.54	2.83	2.29
Scored	1.31	1.33	1.29
Conceded	1.23	1.50	1.00
BTTS	38.46%	33.33%	42.86%
CS	53.85%	50.00%	57.14%
FTS	15.38%	16.67%	14.29%

Independiente del Valle

Ecuador - Liga Pro League Pos. 1 / 16

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	W W W W W	2.54
Home	L W W W W	2.33
Away	W W W W W	2.75

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	83.33%	75.00%	91.67%
AVG	3.33	3.17	3.50
Scored	2.42	2.33	2.50
Conceded	0.92	0.83	1.00
BTTS	45.83%	41.67%	50.00%
CS	45.83%	50.00%	41.67%
FTS	8.33%	8.33%	8.33%

FORM EDGE ANALYSIS — WHO WILL WIN?

Form - HomeForm - Away

2.00

WWWLL

2.75

WWWWW

FIRST HALF GOAL PROBABILITY

0%HT O0.5

Combined HT Probability

Based on both teams' last 10 matches — half-time scores

Aucas

Over

Under

Independiente del Valle

Over

Under

SECOND HALF GOAL PROBABILITY

0%SH O0.5

Combined 2nd Half Probability

Based on both teams' last 10 matches — second half scores

Aucas

Over

Under

Independiente del Valle

Over

Under

OVER / UNDER GOAL PROBABILITY

0%OVER 2.5

Combined Probability

Based on both teams' last 10 matches

Aucas

Over

Under

Independiente del Valle

Over

Under

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE — BTTS TRACKER

—CHANCE

~ Medium reliability

Aucas

—

Independiente del Valle

—

Recent Match Resultsoldest → newest

Aucas

Independiente del Valle

GG — Both scoredNG — One or both didn't score

TRENDS

Aucas TRENDS

Independiente del Valle TRENDS

⚡ MATCH TEMPO RADAR

Aucas

Independiente del Valle

Aucas

Independiente del Valle

CORNER KICK POISSON MATRIX

Exact corner score map

Each cell shows one possible corner score. Darker green cells are the most likely exact outcomes. Use this together with the model pick to judge the best corner target line.

Partial corner data Partial corner history; probabilities are capped.

Model pickUNDER 7.5

Expected total4.46

Aucas xC1.76

Independiente del Valle xC2.70

PossibleLikelyMost likely

Home → Away ↓	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10+
0	1.953%	2.839%	2.31%	1.387%	0.685%	-	-	-	-	-	-
1	3.984%	5.789%	4.71%	2.829%	1.398%	0.601%	-	-	-	-	-
2	4.549%	6.611%	5.379%	3.231%	1.596%	0.687%	-	-	-	-	-
3	3.835%	5.572%	4.534%	2.723%	1.345%	0.579%	-	-	-	-	-
4	2.659%	3.863%	3.144%	1.888%	0.933%	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	1.605%	2.332%	1.898%	1.14%	0.563%	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	0.873%	1.268%	1.032%	0.62%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	-	0.635%	0.517%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10+	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

UNDER 7.5 is the primary corner target from 4.46 expected total corners.

UNDER 7.5

#	TEAM	PTS	GP	W	D	L	+/-
1	Cambuur	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Fortuna Sittard	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Telstar	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	PEC Zwolle	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	PSV Eindhoven	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Heerenveen	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	NEC Nijmegen	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AZ Alkmaar	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Sparta Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Willem II	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Excelsior	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	ADO Den Haag	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	GO Ahead Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Groningen	0	0	0	0	0	0

MATCH STATISTICS

PREDICTION ENGINE ANALYSIS

SIGNAL BREAKDOWN

Premium Feature

Who will win?

Will both teams score?

Who will score first?

TABLE STANDINGS

Top Scorers

Top Assists

Head to Head

LAST 6 MATCHES

TEAM PERFORMANCE COMPARISON

FORM EDGE ANALYSIS — WHO WILL WIN?

FIRST HALF GOAL PROBABILITY

SECOND HALF GOAL PROBABILITY

OVER / UNDER GOAL PROBABILITY

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE — BTTS TRACKER

TRENDS

⚡ MATCH TEMPO RADAR