Six-pointers are not just about football — they are about survival. Nova Iguaçu and CFRJ / Maricá both know that defeat here could be the moment a season turns from uncomfortable to catastrophic. When everything is on the line, defensive caution reigns supreme, and goals can be hard to come by. Yet the anxiety of the occasion can also produce errors, and errors produce goals. Our model has weighed the tension, the form, and the head-to-head record and arrives at a Home Win as the most likely outcome, at a probability of 0%. Nerves will play their part.