Every point matters when you are in a title race, and that fact does not diminish the quality of football on show — if anything, it elevates it. Union Berlin know that dropping points at the stadium could have consequences that reverberate for weeks. The pressure is real, and both sets of players know exactly what is at stake. When the stakes are highest, the better-organised team tends to prevail, and our model — taking form, motivation, and historical patterns into account — settles on a Home Win with a probability of 43%.