On paper, Ceilândia should be the dominant force here. Their home record is solid, the crowd at the stadium will be behind them, and they carry slightly superior individual quality. But Luverdense have a stubborn streak that the numbers confirm — they have avoided defeat in a large portion of their recent away games, grinding out results when the odds are against them. Our engine believes that defensive resilience will prove just enough to deny Ceilândia a win, with a 39% probability pointing toward a share of the spoils.