Qarabag have been ruthlessly efficient in front of goal this season, and their away record is arguably more impressive than their home form. They have scored 1.0 goals per away game on average — a number that would cause concern for any home defence, let alone Vestri's, which has been prone to errors. When a sharp, clinical away side meets a fragile home defence, the scoreboard tends to reflect it. Our model gives Qarabag a 56% probability of claiming all three points at Throttarvollur.