If Jong AZ had one wish ahead of this trip to the stadium, it would be for their leaky defence to hold firm for ninety minutes. The problem is, that has barely happened all season. They have conceded 1.2 goals per away game on average, offering opposing strikers a red carpet invitation. Waalwijk have not been shy in exploiting such weaknesses, averaging 1.4 goals at home. The model is clear: this has goals in it, and most of them are likely to fall the home side's way. Win probability for Waalwijk: 60%.