Freshness can be as decisive as quality at this stage of the season, and Benfica hold a significant edge in that department. While FC ST. Gallen have been grinding through a congested schedule, Benfica have had more time to recover, train, and prepare for this specific fixture. A rested, well-drilled away side against a tired home team is a recipe for an upset that is not really an upset at all. Our model anticipates an away victory for Benfica at 53% probability.