Tipping an away win is never the most comfortable position, but the data nudges us in that direction. FC Urartu have shown just enough quality on the road this season to edge out the type of hosts Ararat-Armenia represent — neither dominant nor threatening, just consistently enough flawed to be vulnerable. This will not be a comfortable win if it materialises; it may well come down to a single moment. But our engine, having processed every available metric, sides with FC Urartu at a probability of 38%.