Rayo Vallecano are not the type of side to open themselves up unnecessarily. When they travel, they are organised, patient, and willing to wait for a moment of quality. Charleroi will have plenty of the ball in patches, but translating possession into goals has been their persistent problem this season. The likely trajectory here is a controlled, professional away performance ending in a narrow Rayo Vallecano victory. Our model forecasts an away win at 35%, with the goals count likely to stay modest.