Market Trends
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Market Trends

How Market Trends works

Market Trends summarizes stored predictions, bookmaker prices, and settled results for fixtures on your selected local matchday. Today and tomorrow are available so the dashboard remains fast and complete. It is an analytical screening tool, not a guarantee or betting recommendation.

Market Window Digest
Counts the analyzed fixtures, leagues, countries, stored predictions with at least 50 confidence, and fixtures with bookmaker odds. Top markets are ranked by average model confidence; confidence is not the same as historical accuracy.
Value Opportunity Radar
Uses the highest matching stored bookmaker price. Implied probability is 100 รท decimal odds, and Edge is the model probability minus that implied probability. Only rows with confidence of at least 55, valid odds, and positive edge are shown. Bookmaker margin and model calibration still matter.
Prediction Confidence Heatmap
Displays average stored model confidence by league and normalized market family. The number under each cell is the prediction sample. Darker cells mean higher average confidence, not proven profitability or settled accuracy.
Market Consensus Tracker
Consolidates duplicate feeds per bookmaker, converts decimal odds to implied probabilities, and removes each bookmaker market's overround by normalizing across its available outcomes. Consensus is higher when distinct bookmakers' normalized probabilities are close together. It measures price agreement, not outcome certainty.
League Predictability Index
Uses the upcoming fixture's explicit league season and grades the highest-probability pick per supported market from settled fixtures in the previous 365 days. The score combines settled accuracy (55%), Brier-based calibration (30%), sample size up to 100 picks (15%), and data freshness. Unsupported or incomplete markets are excluded. Season baseline statistics are displayed for context.
Pro Tips
  • Check sample size first. Accuracy and calibration based on a small settled sample are unstable.
  • Compare edge with calibration. A large edge from a poorly calibrated league model deserves caution.
  • Use league filters to focus the dashboard when a matchday contains many fixtures.
  • Consensus is descriptive. Similar bookmaker prices do not make an outcome more certain.
  • Verify current odds. Stored prices can change after this dashboard is generated.